Sustainable Development

Sustainable Development Scenario

A cleaner and more inclusive energy future

A new approach to energy and sustainable development

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Based on existing and announced policies – as described in the IEA New Policies Scenario – the world is not on course to achieve the outcomes of the UN SDGs most closely related to energy: to achieve universal access to energy (SDG 7), to reduce the severe health impacts of air pollution (part of SDG 3) and to tackle climate change (SDG 13). The SDS sets out an ambitious but pragmatic vision of how the global energy sector can evolve in order to achieve these critical energy-related SDGs.
The SDS starts with the SDG outcomes and then works back to set out what would be needed to deliver these goals in the most cost-effective way. The benefits in terms of prosperity, health, environment and energy security would be substantial, but achieving these outcomes would require a profound transformation in the way we produce and consume energy. In 2018, the SDS also includes a water dimension, focusing both on the water needs of the energy sector and the energy needs of achieving SDG 6 on clean water and sanitation.

Universal access to modern energy is achieved by 2030, in line with SDG 7

A strong drive towards electrification (on-grid and off-grid) and provision of clean cooking facilities means the number of people without access to modern energy drops to zero by 2030, transforming the lives of hundreds of millions, and reducing the severe health impacts of indoor air pollution, overwhelmingly caused by smoke from cooking.

Health impacts due to energy-related air pollution are reduced dramatically

Outdoor air pollution is reduced substantially, leading to more than 1.6 million fewer premature deaths globally in 2040 than projected under current trends. Indoor air pollution also falls sharply, with access to clean cooking contributing to more than 1.5 million fewer premature deaths.

The world delivers on the Paris Agreement and SDG 13

Energy production and use is the largest source of global greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, meaning that the energy sector is crucial for achieving the objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. Under the SDS, energy-related GHG  emissions peak around 2020 and then decline rapidly. By 2040, they are at around half of today’s level and on course toward net-zero emissions by 2070, in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

The SDS and the Paris Agreement

The SDS is fully aligned with the Paris Agreement’s goal of “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C”.

To achieve the temperature goal, the Paris Agreement calls for emissions to peak as soon as possible and reduce rapidly thereafter, leading to a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks (i.e. net-zero emissions) in the second half of this century. These conditions are met in the SDS: global CO2 emissions peak around 2020 and then decline steeply to 2040, on course towards net-zero emissions in the latter half of the century.

From now until 2040 (the period covered by the model), the emissions trajectory of the SDS is at the lower end of other decarbonisation scenarios projecting a median temperature rise in 2100 of around 1.7 °C to 1.8 °C. It is also within the envelope of scenarios projecting a temperature rise below 1.5 °C, as assessed by the recent IPCC Special Report on 1.5 C.

The ultimate long-term temperature outcome will depend on the trajectory of emissions after 2040 – including when global CO₂emissions reach net zero – as well as levels of emissions of other types of greenhouse gases. A continuation of the SDS pre-2040 emissions reduction rate would lead to global energy-sector CO₂ emissions falling to net-zero by 2070. Maintaining or accelerating the rate of reduction of energy- and process-related emissions up to and beyond 2040 is likely to require robust technological innovation. In the SDS, the power sector decarbonises rapidly before 2040, highlighting the importance of other sectors, including those where emissions reductions are more challenging, such as industry and freight transport. Other important sectors for innovation include carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) and so-called “negative emissions” technologies that allow CO₂ to be withdrawn from the atmosphere at scale in the second-half of the century.. Further, the science around emissions trajectories and climate implications is still evolving, and IEA scenarios will continue to be updated in light of the latest science.

The Paris Agreement is also clear that climate change mitigation objectives should be fulfilled in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty. The Sustainable Development Scenario explicitly supports these broader development efforts (in contrast to most other decarbonisation scenarios), in particular through its energy access and cleaner air dimensions.

Achieving three objectives in parallel

There is no trade-off between achieving climate objectives and delivering on energy access and air pollution goals.

Good policy design can exploit synergies between the three parallel objectives of the SDS. Achieving universal access to modern energy only leads to a small increase in CO₂ emissions (0.1%), the climate effect of which is more than offset by lower methane emissions due to a reduction in use of traditional biomass cookstoves.

Further, the transition to a low-carbon economy leads to a more efficient energy system that relies less on fuel combustion; this plays a major role in improving air quality, reducing both outdoor and household air pollution.

In countries where reducing health impacts of air pollution is an urgent issue, low-carbon measures that reduce the overall quantity of fossil fuels being used – including energy efficiency measures on the demand side, and a shift to renewables on the supply side – are likely to be an important part of an action plan to tackle those health-related impacts.  Measures taken primarily for low-carbon objectives, including renewables and efficiency, account for more than half of all reductions of NOx emissions and about 40% of SO2 emissions, by 2040 in the SDS (relative to the NPS). The remaining reductions are mostly driven by pollution-specific measures, including policies that mandate the installation of advanced pollution control technologies and mechanisms for monitoring and enforcement.  For PM2.5 emissions, energy access policies are an important driver of reductions, because indoor cooking smoke is currently the largest source of PM2.5 emissions globally.

Investment

The SDS presents an energy transition where renewables and energy efficiency lead the charge in reducing CO₂ emissions as well as reducing pollutants that cause poor air quality.  Renewables become the dominant force in power generation, providing over 65% of global electricity generation by 2040. Wind and solar PV, in particular, soon become the cheapest sources of electricity in many countries and provide nearly 40% of all electricity in 2040. Emissions reduction in transport, industry and buildings are achieved largely through greatly enhanced energy efficiency and increasing levels of electrification of end-uses. Overall, achieving the vision of the SDS would require an increase of only around 13% in energy investment globally, relative to NPS.

Published by IEA