Modern bioenergy leads the growth of all renewables to 2023, according to latest IEA market forecast

Modern bioenergy will have the biggest growth in renewable resources
between 2018 and 2023, underscoring its critical role in building a
robust renewable portfolio and ensuring a more secure and sustainable
energy system, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest
market forecast.
Renewables will continue their expansion in the next five years,
covering 40% of global energy consumption growth, according to the IEA’s
Renewables 2018
market analysis and forecast report. Their use continues to increase
most rapidly in the electricity sector, and will account for almost a
third of total world electricity generation in 2023. Because of weaker
policy support and additional barriers to deployment, renewables use
expands far more slowly in the transport and heat sectors.
While the growth in solar PV and wind is set to continue in the
electricity sector, bioenergy remains the largest source of renewable
energy because of its widespread use in heat and transport, sectors in
which other renewables currently play a much smaller role.
“Modern bioenergy is the overlooked giant of the renewable energy
field,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director. “Its share in
the world’s total renewables consumption is about 50% today, in other
words as much as hydro, wind, solar and all other renewables combined.
We expect modern bioenergy will continue to lead the field, and has huge
prospects for further growth. But the right policies and rigorous
sustainability regulations will be essential to meet its full
potential.”
The focus on bioenergy is part of the IEA’s analysis of “blind spots”
of the energy system – issues that are critical to the evolution of the
energy sector but that receive less attention than they deserve – such
as the impact of air conditioners on electricity demand, or the growing
impact of petrochemicals on global oil demand. Assuming strong
sustainability measures are in force, the report identifies additional
untapped potential for bioenergy to “green” and diversify energy usage
in the industry and transport sectors.
China leads global growth in renewable energy as a result of policies
to decarbonise all sectors and reduce harmful local air pollution, and
becomes the largest consumer of renewable energy, surpassing the
European Union by 2023. Of the world’s largest energy consumers, Brazil
has the highest share of renewables by far – almost 45% of total final
energy consumption in 2023, driven by significant contribution of
bioenergy and hydropower.
Meanwhile, solar PV dominates renewable
electricity capacity expansion. Renewable capacity additions of
178 gigawatts (GW) in 2017 broke another record, accounting for more
than two-thirds of global net electricity capacity growth for the first
time. Solar PV capacity expanded the most (97 GW), over half of which
was in China. Meanwhile, onshore wind additions globally declined for
the second year in a row, and hydropower growth continued to decelerate.
Solar PV capacity is forecast to
expand by almost 600 GW – more than all other renewable power
technologies combined, or as much as twice Japan’s total capacity,
reaching 1 terawatt (TW) by the end of the forecast period. Despite
recent policy changes, China remains the absolute solar PV leader by
far, holding almost 40% of global installed PV capacity in 2023. The
United States remains the second-largest growth market for solar PV,
followed by India, whose capacity quadruples .
Wind remains the second-largest
contributor to renewable capacity growth, while hydropower remains the
largest renewable electricity source by 2023. Similar to last year’s
forecast, wind capacity is expected to expand by 60%. Meanwhile, spurred
by technological progress and significant cost reductions, offshore
wind capacity triples, with growth moving beyond Europe to Asia and
North America.
Even with renewable energy
technologies becoming increasingly competitive, appropriate policies and
market design are critical. Under an accelerated case, which assumes
greater supportive government measures, the expansion of renewables in
electricity and in transport could be 25% higher.
Untapped potential of bioenergy in cement, sugar and ethanol
industries is also significant. Bioenergy growth in the industry,
transport and electricity sectors combined could be as considerable as
that of other renewables in the electricity sector. A significant
proportion of this potential relies on wastes and residues that offer
low lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigate concerns over
land-use change. In addition, using these resources can improve waste
management and air quality.
published by IEA - October 2018
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